Professor Bryson: “The decline in the mental health of the young is of great concern”
The “hump of unhappiness” is a phenomenon in which feelings of worry, stress, and depression peak in midlife and then gradually decline. A 2008 study, “Is well-being U-shaped over the life cycle,” further explained this pattern, showing that psychological well-being follows a U-shaped curve throughout life. But new research suggests that things are changing.
A new study, “The declining mental health of the young and the global disappearance of the unhappiness hump shape in age,” found that the “hump of unhappiness” no longer affects people in middle age in developed countries, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. Instead, young people today are most affected by all these feelings that affect mental health.
The results were obtained based on data from national mental health surveys in the US, which included 10 million adults from 1993 to 2024, and in the UK, which surveyed 40,000 households from 2009 to 2023. To further determine whether this is the case worldwide, the researchers turned to data from Global Minds, a mental health research project that has been conducted since 2020 on almost 2 million people in 44 countries, including the US and the UK.
This study clearly shows that the biggest mental health crisis today is not affecting middle-aged people, but young people.
Alex Bryson, one of the authors of the study and Professor of Quantitative Social Science at the Social Research Institute, University College London, answered a few questions about the study for Unknown Focus.
You had a lot of work to do, so how difficult was it, and why do the data start from 1993 for the U.S. but from 2009 for the U.K.?
Professor Bryson: Analyzing these large data sets is something that, as quantitative social scientists, we are used to doing and we love doing. It’s hard, and one needs to build up experience with these sorts of data to ensure that they are aware of the potential pitfalls in examining trends. The reason that the US data go back to 1993 is that this is the first year we have the data from the CDC, whereas in the UK, the time series is much shorter because the UKHLS began much later. We can only show what we have.
“Many researchers are working hard to identify its causes, but we aren’t there yet.”
According to the study, “Instead, the hump’s disappearance appears to be due to a decline in mental health among younger people.” Is this alarming, and what does it tell us not only about the current state of mental health but also about future generations? Can we act preventively, and how can these data be used in practice?
Professor Bryson: Yes, the decline in the mental health of the young is of great concern. The reasons for the change are not fully understood yet. Many researchers are working hard to identify its causes, but we aren’t there yet. Two issues have come to the fore. One is the role of new technologies – smartphones and the internet – and the potential impact that these have on young people’s mental health. Even though the findings from this work are not conclusive in terms of identifying the causal effect of screen time, it seems prudent – on a precautionary principle – to take action to limit what we think might be excessive use of smartphones and, ideally, limit young people’s ease of access to potentially problematic content on the web.
The second area worthy of consideration is a potential drop in the quality of jobs. We say this because in a new paper we’ve published in the NBER Discussion Paper series, we find that the change in the age profile of distress in the USA is driven, in large part, by an increase in distress among young workers. This is particularly pronounced among less educated young workers, leading us to speculate as to whether the quality of the jobs they are undertaking has declined in a way that’s impacting their mental health. We think this issue is deserving of urgent attention.
As mentioned, the scientists analyzed data on nearly 2 million people from 44 countries, including the U.S. and the U.K., from a mental health study called Global Minds. Covering the years 2020 through 2025, these data suggest the unhappiness hump has disappeared worldwide. This means that they analyzed data from the U.S. and the U.K., and then additionally from 2 million people in 44 countries.
How and why did you select the other countries, and were all continents included?
Professor Bryson: We chose the Global Minds data for the 44 countries with large sample sizes – 10,000 or more observations. This means our estimates are more reliable than if we’d used countries with smaller sample sizes. These 44 countries come from all over the world. Specifically, they are grouped as follows:
1) Middle East (3) – Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.
2) Africa (10) – Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tunisia, and Yemen.
3) Latin America (15) – Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela.
4) Asia (5) – Bangladesh, India, Iraq, Pakistan, and the Philippines.
5) English-speaking countries (6) Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the UK, and the USA.
6) Europe (5) – Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
Considering such a large number of people, wouldn’t it help if politicians focused more on the living and working conditions of young people? Mental health should also be viewed from another angle, since it affects immunity, productivity, nutrition, and overall health. This means that in 10–15 years, it could become a major burden for the healthcare system if no preventive action is taken.
Professor Bryson: The costs of worsening mental health in young people extend well beyond the costs felt directly by the young people, extending to all of society. We don’t need to wait 10-15 years to find this out. The strain on health systems around the world is already being felt. It’s hard to estimate the overall costs in terms of lost productivity and tax revenues, but most estimates suggest that mental health problems are among the key contributors to sickness absence from work, for example.
“This deserves the attention of not only the academic community, but policy advisers and their governments throughout the world.”
What makes you especially proud when it comes to this study?
Professor Bryson: We are happy that we have been able to draw attention to the worsening mental health of young people around the world. We are not the first to do so, but we have managed to show just how widespread the problem is. We have also been able to show that the change means it is the young, not the middle-aged, who are now suffering most from poor mental health. This deserves the attention of not only the academic community, but policy advisers and their governments throughout the world.
Your mental health matters. If you need support, know that help is always available.
